The Berlin Marathon carries the reputation of being "the world's fastest course." Eight of the last ten men's world records were set here, and the course record is Kipchoge's 2:01:09 from 2022.

Last year Sawe won in Berlin in 2:02:16; given the humid heat and pacemakers dropping off early, that performance was highly significant. After the race many said that, with better weather, humanity might already have been in the Sub 2 era.

But injury is merciless: Sawe's withdrawal has turned Berlin from a "record factory" into a question mark. Although the course remains flat and straight and late-September temperatures are usually cool, without that leading figure can Berlin still recreate the miracle?

If Berlin boasts the “first to break 2,” then Chicago has the “closest to breaking 2” in defending champion Jacob Kiplimo. At this year’s London Marathon Kiplimo ran 2:00:28, the third-fastest time in history, just 28 seconds shy of the 2-hour barrier.

Notably, his second half of that race was faster than his first: first half 1:00:29, second half 59:59. Many may have thought he failed to match Savi and Kejelcha’s pace and had slowed, but that’s not the case — he did accelerate, just not as quickly as Savi and Kejelcha.

As the fastest man ever over the half marathon (this year’s 57:20 half-marathon world record was, in a sense, reclaimed), he clearly has the capacity to cross the sub-2 threshold.

© London Marathon Organising Committee

Beyond having the ability to go sub-2, the stimulus of rivals is also crucial. This year’s Chicago men’s elite field is terrifyingly deep. Besides Kiplimo, there’s this year’s London Marathon fourth-place Amos Kipruto ( Amos Kipruto ), and the two could battle to the end.

There are also 2024 Berlin Marathon champion Milkesa Mengesha ( Milkesa Mengesha ), Tokyo Marathon two-time champion Tadese Takele ( Tadese Takele ), this year’s Tokyo Marathon fourth-place finisher Dennis Mateiko (Daniel Mateiko ), and last year’s Chicago Marathon third-place Alex Masai ( Alex Masai ) among other strong contenders.

The Chicago course is famed as “the flattest in the world,” with total elevation gain of only 74 m. Mid-October conditions are typically cool and dry with few extremes, and the last men’s marathon world record was set in Chicago.

Kiplimo won here last year in 2:02:23 and knows every bend and straight. He’s only 28 seconds from breaking 2, and he’s surrounded by a pack of elite rivals who can surge at any moment — that “wolf-pack” tactic was the key to reproducing the London miracle.

With both the hardware (course/conditions) and the depth of the field working in its favor, Chicago has a very strong chance of producing a sub-2.

Held on the same day as the Shanghai Marathon, the Valencia Marathon is the latest-starting of the three sub-2 candidate races; although it’s not a World Marathon Majors event, its heat is undiminished. Leading the field is London runner-up Yomif Kejelcha (Yomif Kejelcha), the second person in history to officially break 2 hours — and he did it in his debut marathon with 1:59:41, only 11 seconds slower than Savi.

Kejelcha’s résumé is full of speed genes: the 10 km road world record (26:31) and a former half-marathon world record (57:30). Crucially, he once set a half-marathon world record in Valencia and therefore has an almost instinctive familiarity with this course.His coach has revealed that in his London debut he only showed 85%–90% of his potential, which suggests Valencia could see an even stronger Kejelcha.

His biggest rival is defending champion John Korir ( John Korir ). At this year’s Boston Marathon he produced an astonishing 2:01:52, breaking a course record that had stood for 15 years.Two top athletes racing together and pulling each other is precisely one of the ideal prerequisites for producing extreme speed.

The Valencia course is likewise known for being flat with few turns, has produced fast times in recent years, and December in Spain typically brings cool, stable weather with a very low chance of rain.

The elite list released by the race organizers is equally astonishing in depth; several athletes with PBs around 2:04 will form a strong pacing group, including PB 2:03:11 2024 London Marathon champion Alexander Mutiso (Alexander Mutiso ）and PB 2:03:48 2023 Valencia third-place finisher Dawit Wolde (Dawit Wolde), among others.

Kojelcha has already broken the 2-hour barrier, so the chances of him doing it again are very high. If he and Korir race each other to the finish, we might even see the London Marathon produce the spectacle of two runners going sub-2 again.

In 1954 the first sub-4-minute mile in human history was run, and soon the second, third and fourth followed. After the marathon barrier is broken, will we similarly see a second, third, even fourth occurrence appear quickly?

Savi’s unexpected withdrawal due to injury has turned Berlin from the frontrunner into a question mark, but the suspense over a sub-2 hasn’t disappeared — it’s simply shifted more heavily onto Chicago and Valencia.

©London Marathon organizers

Chicago has Kiprimo and the similarly ranked Amos Kipruto, plus a group of top contenders; as long as the weather isn’t especially bad, the chance of a sub-2 is high. And with Nike athletes on Nike’s home turf, can Nike win one back in Chicago?

Valencia has Kojelcha and Korir and has been whetting appetites for some time. Valencia — which has explicitly said it doesn’t want to become a Grand Slam event — could it deliver a little “shock” to the world?

In the second half of 2026 we may still witness another sub-2 spectacle, although the stage may have narrowed from a three-way to a head-to-head. However,the charm of the marathon lies in its unpredictability — might a dark horse emerge in Berlin?

When limits are broken, anything is possible. The marathon world won’t be dull in the second half of 2026.

(Finally, a quick note: Paoye will livestream Berlin and Valencia — remember to join the Paoye live stream to witness these historic moments together. Of course, besides hoping for a “break 2”, the performances of Chinese elite athletes are also worth watching.)