Have you noticed that news of men breaking records at the World Marathon Majors has become increasingly rare in recent years? That may not be a coincidence. The latest scientific research confirms what many elite runners have long felt: we are racing in climatic conditions that are increasingly unfavourable for record-setting.
According to the BBC, a new study from the US nonprofit “Climate Center” sounds the alarm: rising temperatures have made record-breaking performances “almost impossible”. Even more startling, the report predicts that by 2045 up to 86% of 221 major marathons worldwide will increasingly struggle to experience ideal temperatures. The study even precisely defines optimal temperatures for female and male runners at 10℃ and 4℃ respectively, so high heat is especially detrimental to male runners.
"This really isn't the familiar Tokyo Marathon!" Remember the chilly 2℃ 的环境，连在现场的编辑都能明显感受到气候的剧变。而今年九月举办的柏林马拉松竟出现摄氏 24℃ 的异常高温。
The president of World Athletics said last month that, to protect athletes from extreme climate risks, endurance events such as the marathon may need to be scheduled separately in different seasons at major championships like the World Championships. Research shows, Tokyo currently offers the highest probability (69%) of ideal temperatures for elite male runners, but it is also expected to experience the sharpest decline by 2045.
Mhairi Maclennan, the fastest British woman at the 2024 London Marathon, lamented that weather conditions directly determine success or failure. We spend years training and managing every detail of our lives to peak on race day, but as ideal temperatures become rarer, record-breaking goals are growing more out of reach. Climate change not only makes races harder; it also means that if temperatures keep rising, record-breaking performances may soon become impossible.
It’s not only the World Marathon Majors that are affected by high temperatures — domestic races are facing the same challenge. One race that has already made a change is the Chongqing Marathon: for 2026 the event has moved from March to January. While part of the decision is to avoid clashing with other major domestic marathons clustered in March, such as Wuxi and Wuhan, another key reason is that January’s lower temperatures are more conducive to fast performances.
Nowadays, many of the World Marathon Majors have shifted their race dates. In light of these climatic conditions, do you think the marathon calendar will be adjusted going forward? Or should marathons even be included in the Winter Olympics?
